"This year's peak season cargo volume has increased by 5-6 times year-on-year. It is not an exaggeration to use the word skyrocketing. Whether it is the first shipping or air transportation, or the last shipping, express delivery, and transit warehouses, they have all been It is at the limit of carrying capacity. Worse, in the next six months, cross-border logistics will only get worse in terms of price, position, and timeliness." Hu, general manager of Shenzhen Aotong International Freight Forwarding Company Rong preached.

Every aspect of cross-border logistics has always been related to the whole body. Logistics in the peak season has been a lot of things, and the outbreak of the epidemic has made this year's peak season logistics even worse.

In terms of price alone, the price of ocean freight has skyrocketed from the previous 1400 US dollars to the current 5000-6000 US dollars, reaching the highest in history; the air freight has also soared from a dozen (RMB/KGS) last year to the current 55 (RMB/KGS) ), the highest peak in June this year even exceeded 100 (RMB/KGS)/kg. Now, not only the first, but also the final express companies have also increased their prices...

But for cross-border e-commerce sellers, the pressure on logistics is definitely more than price!

American road logistics is a mess!

The US market has always been the focus of the cross-border e-commerce industry.

Recently, not only the out-of-control epidemic, but also the wave after the election, have aggravated social conflicts in the United States. Reflected in cross-border logistics, the transportation of the entire chain is more difficult. In addition to the skyrocketing volume and price as mentioned above, it is difficult to reconcile the position problem of the entire first-haul transportation and the delivery timeliness of the last-haul.

First transportation:

In terms of the first journey, in fact, every logistics provider faces the same problem-soaring prices and soaring volume, but the storage resources are even more tense. There are even many logistics companies that, in order to protect their positions, will add 500-600 US dollars on the basis of the already outrageous 5000-6000 US dollars. Even so, ship owners often can only meet part of their position requirements.

Hu Rong said that because of the low operating rate of ocean cargo ships, high delay rate, and tight storage space, usually at the beginning of the month, Auslink will book the storage space for the entire month in advance and give the shipowner the demand in advance. However, whether it is an advance reservation or a temporary price increase, the shipowner usually can only meet one-third of the monthly position requirements submitted by Austra.

In terms of the final journey, it is also the biggest difficulty in peak season logistics.

Hu Rong revealed to Hugo.com that now, whether it is truck delivery or express delivery, there are varying degrees of delays in the last mile. Therefore, when the shipment arrives in the United States, the final delivery channel depends on the specifics. It is decided in real time.

"At this stage, whether it is a fleet of terminals or logistics employees, there have been widespread strikes in the United States, and there are more and more job shortages. In addition, there may be problems such as personnel infections with the new crown, public gatherings and demonstrations after the US election. , The overall timeliness of the final journey will definitely be lengthened.

So we are now using Chinese in the final delivery. At the same time, we can only make real-time adjustments based on the daily developments in the United States-express and truck special services, combined with the daily epidemic situation in the United States and local delivery conditions, to quickly respond and make decisions. Send it out as soon as possible. "

According to his introduction, the four major couriers used by Aotong are used for final delivery in the United States. But now the express delivery has reached a peak and is on the verge of paralysis, and even some are already in a paralyzed state and can only run slowly.

"In addition to truck specials and express delivery, Auslink also has a flagship product for last-haul delivery-the US Semi-March. The account of Austel US Semi-March enjoys UPS's VIP service, and the delivery time is much higher than other channels. , And the time limit covering the entire United States is uniform.

According to our calculations, more than 92% of the delivery orders that can be delivered within 48 hours for the half-month delivery in the United States, this is a very high level in the current industry. And UPS's 48-hour red order service also makes our loss rate during peak seasons much lower than other accounts. "

"The value of goods reported is low, and the customs inspection is strict", how sellers avoid risks

While the volume of goods in the peak season has skyrocketed, there is no doubt that the seller's order volume has also skyrocketed.

Hu Rong told Hugo.com that from what they have observed, the number of sellers has indeed risen a lot in recent times. Among them, household products should have the largest increase. Regardless of the US market or the Canadian market, the demand for home furnishing products is also very high, especially the growth rate of some smart home furnishing products is particularly eye-catching. This is also a good prospect in the cross-border market this year and for a period of time from now. Category.

The outbreak of overseas epidemics has also prompted another increase in the demand for epidemic prevention materials. However, compared with the crazy degree of "the entire flight is all epidemic prevention materials" in March and April this year, the current volume of goods is insignificant. Although the current demand for epidemic prevention materials is also rising, they are basically in the normal scope of import and export.

For sellers, the surge in orders during peak seasons should be a major benefit. But only from the current logistics situation, it seems that the soaring order quantity has become a burden-and the larger the order quantity, the greater the risk. These risks are not just the risks of the timeliness of logistics. The risks of under-declared goods and the increase in customs inspection rates have caused many sellers to feel on the needle.

In fact, sellers under-reporting the value of goods are already an open secret in this industry. Especially when doing the double tax package of various countries, everyone will keep the value of the goods very low, sometimes even to an outrageous 0.1 US dollars. However, under the trend of compliance in recent years, especially since the Sino-US trade war and the epidemic, the inspection rate of imported products by the US customs is very high. As a result, under-reported value is a very big risk for logistics providers and sellers.
Hu Rong said that in response to the high rate of U.S. customs inspections and the low value of sellers, they also did a lot of research, and then launched targeted products that were offered for half a month in the United States.

According to his introduction, the half-monthly delivery of products in the United States is to directly transport the goods by sea or air to the supervised warehouse in Vancouver, Canada, and then use the next-day delivery service from the supervised warehouse in Vancouver to deliver to the entire territory of the United States. In the section of "Canada's Supervised Warehouse-the United States", 321 express customs clearance is used. This method has a very low customs clearance inspection rate, which basically does not exceed 1%. And through this channel, all goods are in compliance with actual value Declaration, Sunshine Clearance.

"Maybe many people are worried about the increase in tax costs brought about by compliance declarations. In fact, this worry is unnecessary.

First of all, in terms of price, the US half-monthly price is higher than that of Mason, but much lower than air freight;

On the other hand, in order to open up the channel declaration process, the U.S. semi-monthly declaration is based on the true value of the goods. Because under the 321 express customs clearance mode, under $800 is tax-free, if the seller's value exceeds $800, we will also use multi-frequency shipments to split one shipment into multiple tickets to comply with tax avoidance. "

Hu Rong said that the 321 express customs clearance model is very friendly especially for clothing products with a higher tax rate (tax rate up to 47%) and small products of 21-100 kg.

On the one hand, compliance declarations can solve product inspection problems and have high security; on the other hand, for small-value products, multi-frequency delivery and replenishment, even in the case of such a serious industry explosion Fast delivery. Generally speaking, the American half-month offer is 5-7 days faster than the Clippers Shanghai.

"Aotong has obtained the Canadian UPS qualification and can be scanned and delivered directly in the Vancouver warehouse. To avoid the risk of liquidation; the US semi-monthly mode channel has been opened, and after two years of smooth operation; including our Haika appointment Time has returned to normal. It can be said that our channels are very stable." Hu Rong commented.

Bad logistics will last at least half a year

"According to my observations, it is expected that within half a year, the situation of overseas epidemics and the entire cross-border logistics will only get worse and worse. The word'bad' is also my summary of the trend in the next half year. In this case Whether it’s the seller or our logistics provider, we really have to make arrangements in advance and be able to reserve more time and space for ourselves.”

When preparing inventory, many sellers will calculate inventory at a very precise time based on past sales data and experience. However, under current unstable factors, Hu Rong recommends sellers to prepare inventory in the next six months. , To lengthen the entire cycle. This cycle will be longer than before by at least 10-15 days.

In addition, Hu Rong said that in the foreseeable future, sellers' demand for overseas warehouse transfers will also increase. Therefore, Auslink has also expanded its overseas warehouses in advance. At present, Auslink has 4 warehouses in Canada (Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal) and 3 warehouses in the United States (2 in the west and 1 in the east). .

For Amazon sellers who are unable to open a warehouse, they can store the goods in a third-party overseas warehouse for a short time and wait until the warehouse is restored before shipping FBA. At the same time, it is also recommended that sellers in need should make arrangements in advance!